The Dallas Cowboys stumble back to Arlington after suffering the biggest upset of the young 2023 NFL season and now must prepare for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots in Week 4.
Dallas was absolutely dumped as an 11-point favorite at Arizona last Sunday, losing 28-16 to the Cardinals following two one-sided wins over the New York teams to start the schedule.
The Cowboys are still getting plenty of respect from the NFL odds in Week 4, hovering around touchdown favorites at home to New England.
The Patriots picked up their first victory of the season, edging the punchless Jets 15-10 in Week 3. New England had an uphill climb in the opening two weeks, taking on powerhouses in Philadelphia and Miami: Does Dallas still fall into that category?
I break down this point spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best NFL picks for the Patriots vs. Cowboys on October 1.
Patriots vs Cowboys odds
Patriots vs Cowboys predictions
If you read my NFL Week 4 predictions column, you’ll see I snatched up the New England Patriots at +7 earlier this week. And if you subscribe to the Covers YouTube channel (or watch the video above), you’ll also see I bet the Over 43 points.
The knee-jerk reaction when you see these two teams is to go Under, which is why this total opened at the low number of 41 points. The Patriots are perennial stalwarts on defense and the Dallas Cowboys have set the bar for stop units under Dan Quinn the past few seasons.
The Cowboys’ defense looked very dangerous through the first two games of 2023, giving up only 10 points in absolute squashes of the Giants and Jets. Yet, Dallas was dreadful on defense against Arizona last week, sitting 31st in EPA allowed among all Week 3 performances.
I feel like the opening two games were skewed due to bad weather (and a bad team) against the Giants in Week 1 and the Jets reeling after losing Aaron Rodgers in Week 2. The Cowboys’ defense is good — we’ve seen that over the past three years — but maybe not THAT good.
This Patriots’ offense has also seen its output distorted, taking on some solid defenses to start the season. New England is in the bottom third of advanced metrics like EPA and DVOA, yet has played well when falling behind and forced to go fast.
Quarterback Mac Jones gets into rhythm at that pace and Bill O’Brien has no qualms about rolling out no-huddle to keep his QB going. Given this big spread, the game script says the Pats will need to push that same tempo while playing from behind.
Jones and the offense have been preaching about more explosive plays from this group all week. The QB is ninth in intended air yards per pass attempt but 27th in completed air yards per attempt.
Jones had success hitting some home run plays against Dan Quinn’s defense as a rookie, losing in a 35-29 OT shootout to Dallas back in 2021, and is the best QB this Dallas team has faced this season.
As for the Cowboys’ offense, it needs to cash in on its red zone trips. It’s a collective 3-for-11 inside their opponents’ 20-yard line the past two games — something head coach Mike McCarthy is focusing on during this week’s practices.
Last season, Dallas topped the league in touchdown percentage in the red zone (71.43%), and with the offensive line hoping to get at least two bodies back for Week 4, that scoring attack should get over the hump.
New England’s defense has buckled when backed up against its own end zone, giving up TDs on four of its six red zone stands. The Patriots secondary also limps into Sunday’s non-conference clash. This unit is extremely thin, which didn’t cost them against Zach Wilson and the Jets, but will get exposed by the Cowboys’ bevy of deep-ball weapons.
This game also takes place on the speedy indoor surface at Jerry’s World. The Cowboys thrive on their own field and averaged almost eight points more as hosts than on the road over the past three seasons, leading to a 17-9 Over/Under record in Jerry’s World.
The Patriots have played all three of their 2023 outings in outdoor venues. Last season, New England played only three games in domes and pumped out tallies of 24, 26, and 27 points — a huge jump on its season average of 17.3 points per game.
My best bet: Over 43 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Patriots vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Over 42.5Mac Jones Over 214.5 passing ydsDak Prescott Over 1.5 passing TDs
+320 at bet365
This total is pretty low, but these defenses may not be up to snuff and the inside track at Jerry’s World is supercharged for scoring.
Jones has been talking about more explosive plays all week and I think Bill O’Brien will pick up the pace and let it fly in Week 4. We saw what an offense led by Jones can do inside, so don’t expect to see the same performance as last week’s in the pouring rain at MetLife.
Lastly, Dallas has been working on red-zone sets all week and I expect Dak Prescott will lead the charge with two passing TDs a battered New England defense.
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Patriots vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis
The offseason markets listed Dallas as a 5.5-point home chalk for this non-conference contest, and before its faceplant in Week 3, the look-ahead line was Cowboys -7.5.
However, after that bad loss to Arizona and New England’s win over New York, the official Week 4 spread hit the board at Dallas -7 and that has since sunk to -6.5 with some early opinion on the Pats. According to Covers Consensus, 56% of mid-week picks are on the Cowboys.
There were a few factors that played into Dallas’ downfall in the desert last weekend. Injuries were on both sides of the ball, with the defense playing its first game since All-Pro CB Trevon Diggs went down with a season-ending knee injury and the offensive line missing three starters.
But in the end, the Cowboys were incredibly flat and never played with the same intensity as the Cardinals, who jumped out to a 15-3 lead and put Dallas on its heels. The Cowboys’ offense was still moving the chains but left plenty of points on the table with a 1-for-5 result in the red zone.
They take on a much stiffer test in New England’s defense, which was able to bottle up the Eagles and Dolphins for the most part in their first two games — at least compared to what those teams have done since. New England is 11th in EPA allowed per play and sits fourth in yards allowed per play at just 4.4. It also has a nasty pass rush generating pressure on 29% of dropbacks, which will test a tender Cowboys’ offensive line.
The Patriots also have some inside info on Dallas’ playbook, with former RB Ezekiel Elliott on the roster and the Pats recently signing backup QB Will Grier, who spent the past two seasons and all summer with the Cowboys. Dallas’ new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has admitted that Grier knows his playbook well and that’s forced Dallas to alter their signals ahead of Week 4.
The total for this Week 4 contest opened as low as 41 points and has since been bet up to 43 points with sharp money showing up on the Over early in the week. Covers Consensus shows 52% of picks taking the Over as well.
The Cowboys are 2-1 Over/Under so far in 2023 and running one of the quicker paces on offense, ranking ninth in terms of fewest seconds per play while also using the 11th most no-huddle snaps in the league.
The Patriots played more of a paced game against the Jets in Week 3 but offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien does like to push tempo and will dial up plenty of no-huddle when necessary. He’ll be looking to move fast and get the ball out of Mac Jones’ hands quickly against this dangerous Dallas pass rush, especially considering the Pats ranked dead last in pass block win rate at ESPN (39%).
